Carlos Alcaraz is one of the favorites to win the 2025 Australian Open, his tournament begins against Alexander Shevchenko in a highly anticipated first round matchup. We have predictions for every Australian Open match here at Last Word on Tennis.
We split the rest of Monday’s matches in Melbourne between six other articles. They feature Fabio Fognini vs Grigor Dimitrov, Jannik Sinner vs Nicolas Jarry, Novak Djokovic vs Nishesh Basavareddy, Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Alex Michelsen, Arthur Rinderknech vs Frances Tiafoe, and Nick Kyrgios vs Jacob Fearnley. Who do you think will advance to Round 2?
Australian Open Day 2 Predictions
Adrian Mannarino vs Karen Khachanov
Steen Kirby: A former semifinalist, Khachanov has been a solid player on tour for years now, Mannarino has reached the second week of the Australian Open before and has a tricky game but at 36 years old his career is winding down and he should be at a disadvantage in this matchup.
Prediction: Khachanov in 3
Liam McBride:Khachanov will be disappointed with his Grand Slam performances last season. The world #19 made back-to-back semi finals followed by a quarter final in the back end of 2022 towards 2023. Since then, he has reached the second week in just one out of five tries. Mannarino made the headlines last year, with three five-set wins in his first three rounds against Stan Wawrinka, Jamie Munar, and Ben Shelton, before being destroyed by Novak Djokovic. Two contrasting styles will result in only one winner.
Prediction: Khachanov in 3
Ismael Gonzalez: It is probably safe to say that Mannarino will not find his 2023 form again at this point. He is 36, and struggling to win matches. He finished 2024 with a 17-33 record, and is already 1-3 in the year, losing to Navone, Nagal and Takahashi. Khachanov lost to Nishikori in his only appearance of the year, but at this point in their respective careers, the world number 19, who leads the head-to-head 4-0, should win comfortably.
Prediction: Khachanov in 3
Damian Kust: Khachanov used to like this matchup in the past, but it’s been a while since they played. Generally if you feel comfortable against Mannarino’s ball, that’s not something that should be just going away. Plus the Frenchman has been completely out of form for about a year now, so this one should be relatively easy for Khachanov.
Prediction: Khachanov in 4
Alexandre Muller vs Nuno Borges
Steen: The Auckland semifinalist Borges had a career best year last year and is already starting strong. It’s unfortunate that one of these players will suffer a first-round defeat, as Muller won ATP Hong Kong and is at a career high ranking himself. These 27-year-olds are in the best form of their career and it sets up a matchup that can’t be missed, Muller has a slight edge, but I expect a battle.
Prediction: Muller in 5
Liam: Muller lifted his first title in Hong Kong this season in a thrilling final against Kei Nishikori. Borges will be no easy task though, his compact swings and excellent shot-making make him a tough opponent for anyone when on top of his game. Having said that, it will be an early exit for the 27-year-old.
Prediction: Muller in 4
Ismael: Muller is one of the names of the 2025 season so far, after an incredible Hong Kong tournament that ended with the Frenchman claiming his first ATP title. However, he is not the most consistent player, and Borges, often considered a clay-courter, is a very underrated hard-court player, who has already beaten Yunchaokete and Mensik in 2025, and who easily beat Muller 6-2 6-4 last year. Even against an in-form Muller, the Portuguese is a slight favorite.
Prediction: Borges in 5
Damian: Muller just pulled off that incredible run in Hong Kong and while it’s not sustainable, history was made with five consecutive wins from a set down. Borges had his own wild week in Adelaide and this looks quite even, so I’ll give the edge to the Portuguese based on how comfortable he was on these courts last year.
Prediction: Borges in 4
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Shevchenko
Steen: Alcaraz has surprisingly disappointed at the Australian Open, having never made it past the quarterfinals, he’s still one of the best players on tour and has an intimidation factor when he walks on the court. The 21-year-old takes on the 24-year-old Shevchenko who reached a career high ranking last year and is not a walkover as an opponent. Still, Alcaraz should be fit and firing in the opening match.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Liam: This fortnight Alcaraz will aim to become the youngest man ever to win the career slam at the age of 21. In his way is Shevchenko, a steady baseliner with little weapons. He recorded a victory against a faltering Stefanos Tsitsipas at the ATP Cup but to have any chance against the world #3, the Spaniard will need to be well off his game.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Ismael: Shevchenko had such a mixed set of results at the United Cup: he beat Masur and Tsitsipas, but won a combined eight games against Hurkacz and Carreno Busta. That is the Kazakh by definition, a very inconsistent player. Unluckily for him, it probably won’t matter which version shows up to face Alcaraz, because it will not be enough against a player of the quality of the Spaniard. It will take a level to beat “Carlitos: that Shvchenko can’t produce for three sets.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Damian: Alcaraz hasn’t shown his best tennis at this event yet, missing it in 2023 and producing a horrible showing from a tactical standpoint against Zverev last year. But he should be able to find his game in Melbourne at some point and Shevchenko just doesn’t seem like an opponent who’ll apply enough pressure.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Tristan Schoolkate vs Taro Daniel
Steen: The veteran Daniel has been struggling at tour level, Schoolkate is a rising talent but has achieved very little beyond the ATP Challenger Tour. Daniel’s experience should help him, but Schoolkate is the bright star in this matchup right now.
Prediction: Schoolkate in 4
Liam: Daniel made his name with a straight sets victory over Andy Murray at the Australian Open three years ago, since then though he has failed to kick on. He is an easy-to-the-eye player, with smooth swinging strokes, but has all too often failed to get over the finishing line. There were some flashy moments against Tomás Martín Etcheverry in a thrilling first-set tiebreak, but the Argentine’s experience showed through. He will no doubt use the home crowd to his advantage and make his first Grand Slam second round.
Prediction: Schoolkate in 4
Ismael: This match is a repeat of the 2024 US Open first round, which the Australian won in the fifth set after being 0-2 down. Additionally, he will now have the support of the crowd. It is worth noting that Daniel has lost three straight, while Schoolkate has lost five of his last six, so it probably will not be the prettiest match and could come down to who manages his nerves best, since this is a great chance for both. It could end up looking very similar to last time.
Prediction: Schoolkate in 5
Damian: This is a rematch for their opening round at the US Open, which had Schoolkate somewhat unexpectedly coming back from 0-2 down. Now he’s on home soil and the encounter certainly seems closer on paper than last time, but Daniel is still the better and more consistent player. Perhaps he exacts revenge.
Prediction: Daniel in 4
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports